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Jamie Dupree's Washington Insider

Posted: 8:58 p.m. Monday, Oct. 20, 2008

Take Your Pick 

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By Jamie Dupree

The latest poll numbers seem to rumble in almost hourly, leaving those in the news business and those super interested in the Presidential race hanging on every margin of error.

"Obama lead volatile in national polls," was the headline on the Associated Press wire on Monday night, as they took stock of a new CNN poll and one from CBS/New York Times.

The CNN poll showed Obama's lead in a head to head match with McCain down to five points - it was 11 points two weeks ago.

Good news for McCain, eh?

The CBS/New York Times poll gave Obama a 13 point lead.

Good news for Obama, eh?

The Rasmussen daily tracking poll has Obama's lead down to 4 points.

McCain's on a roll, baby.

The ABC/Washington Post poll has Obama up by 9, unchanged from last week.

Advantage Obama.

Phew.  It's sort of like riding the political version of the Tilt O'Whirl at the county fair.

Here is some interesting data from the polls, not the questions, but the methodology behind the questions, because it's a lot more complicated than asking 100 people a question and adding up the totals.

The ABC poll does not include households that only have a cell phone, an estimated 14% of the US population. 

Even ABC describes that as a "significant level of noncoverage."

One tracking poll by Diageo/Hotline that has Obama's lead down to five points uses the following weighting to determine the final poll numbers:

40% Democrats, 37% Republicans, 18% Independents.

If you want to read a full poll, you can find the ABC poll at http://abcnews.go.com/images/PollingUnit/1077a3Tracking1.pdf

The latest CNN poll is at http://i2.cdn.turner.com/cnn/2008/images/10/20/rel19a.pdf

Take a minute and look through it.

Did I mention that McCain is ahead in Ohio and Florida?

Did I mention that Obama is ahead in Ohio and Florida?

Take your pick as to which polls you want to believe.

 
 

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