I've been getting questions in recent days about what's to be expected in the Congress when it comes to action on health care reform, so let's go over the possibilities.

Lawmakers return to work the day after Labor Day, on September 8. 

Don't expect anything right away.  Instead, the first week will be spent taking the temperature of Democrats, seeing what they can support and what they don't want to have in a health care bill.

There will be lots of attention on the Senate, where a September 15 deadline is in play for six Senators on the Senate Finance Committee, as they try to forge a bipartisan deal.

(They met by telephone last night, with input from President Obama as well.)

If they can come up with a deal, that might change the political equation on health care reform.

But if they devise something that doesn't wash with more liberal lawmakers, then things won't be shifting into higher gear most likely.

As for when the full House might vote, the latest estimate is by the end of September.

Democratic leaders will have to start counting votes very aggressively, with 218 being the only figure that matters - a majority in the House of Representatives.

Over in the Senate, the date that matters is October 15, as there must be action there by that time on a budget reconciliation bill, which is the fast track legislative tool that would avoid a filibuster on health care reform.

In other words, don't expect the Congress to return from the August break and immediately proceed to showdown votes on health reform in the House and Senate.

There will be a lot - and I mean a LOT - of closed door meetings and negotiation sessions, as both sides twist arms for maximum political advantage.

It's going to be a wild ride for all involved.

Could it pass?  Absolutely. 

It could also go down the drain in a huge loss for the White House.