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Jamie Dupree's Washington Insider

Posted: 10:02 p.m. Monday, Oct. 18, 2010

Two Weeks Left 

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By Jamie Dupree

The calendar says 14 days until Election Day, and if you are looking for clues as to how this election is going, look no further than to how each party is spending money on races for the U.S. House.

These are the so-called "Independent Expenditures" which parties can make on behalf of their candidates, but are not supposed to be coordinated with that candidate.

An updated review of that spending by Congressional Quarterly shows something that really magnifies the story line of this year's elections - Democrats are on the defense, while Republicans are playing offense.

When you look at where Democrats are spending money, it is almost all being spent on Democratic seats.  They are trying to keep these seats from going over to the GOP.

For example, the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee has spent the most money on Rep. Larry Kissell (D-NC), $872,000.  Very close behind, Rep. Bobby Bright (D-AL), at $871,000.

There is Rep. John Boccieri (D-OH) at $848,000, the open seat in Michigan's 1st District that Democrats now hold has received $813,000, and then Rep. Frank Kratovil (D-MD) with $811,000.

You have to get down to $510,000 before you find Democrats spending money on a seat held by Republicans, with Rep. Charles Djou (R-HI), who won that seat in a special election just a few months ago.

On the GOP side, the National Republican Congressional Committee is also focusing on all Democrats, with the most, $1.2 million, going against Rep. Mark Schauer (R-MI).

There is almost $1.1 million going against Rep. Dina Titus (D-NV), followed by $954,000 for an open seat now held by Democrats in Washington State's 3rd District.  Then $909,000 against Rep. John Boccieri (D-OH).

Republicans don't show any help for a GOP candidate until you get down to $316,000 for the open seat in Illinois' 10th District, which is likely to switch sides.

In other words - almost all the GOP money is going for Republican efforts to win a seat from the Democrats in the House, as almost all the Democratic money is going to preserve Democratic seats.

Over the last two weeks of this campaign, there's no reason to think that is somehow going to change, giving Republicans a big chance to make major gains.

For many experts in Washington, the only question about this election is, "How many seats will the Republicans win in the U.S. House?"

Will it be 54 seats, like in 1994?  55 seats, like in 1946?

Or is this a 1948 like the Democrats had, when they won 75 seats.

Or even a 1932, when the Democrats won 97 House seats.

We'll know in two weeks.

 
 

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