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Jamie Dupree's Washington Insider

Posted: 8:26 p.m. Tuesday, Oct. 19, 2010

The Campaign Trail 

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By Jamie Dupree

President Obama starts a four day, five state campaign swing today, mainly through Blue states, as he tries to help Democrats claw their way back in the 2010 mid-term elections.

The first stop today is Oregon, where Mr. Obama will campaign for Democratic gubernatorial candidate John Kitzhaber, who is locked in a close race with Republican (and former NBA star) Chris Dudley.

Democrats already hold the Oregon Governor's seat, as Gov. Ted Kulongoski is term limited and cannot run for re-election, making it one of the many Governor's races this year where Democrats are trying to keep the GOP from winning an Election Night Victory.

Oregon is also a state that has seen some odd rumblings on the Congressional front, because it's assumed to be fairly safe territory for Democrats in a delegation that has 4 Democrats and one Republican.

Maybe in the most danger is freshman Democratic Rep. Kurt Schrader (D-OR), who received 54.3% of the vote when he won this seat two years ago.

It's usually a rule of thumb that if you received less than 55% of the vote last time, you might be in trouble two years later - especially in a year like 2010.  The only caveat for Schrader is that he won by 16 points in 2008.

After a stop in Oregon, the next three states are high on the GOP hit list when it comes to the battle for control of the U.S. Senate, as the President will go to Washington State, California and Nevada.

In Washington, Sen. Patty Murray (D-WA) is locked in a tight race, with some polls showing her way up, others giving her a narrow edge over Republican Dino Rossi.

Rossi has latched on to this week's announcement by Boeing that it will increase the cost of health care for its employers, which came as the company directly blamed the new health reform law for the change.

California remains slightly in favor of Democrats, as Sen. Barbara Boxer (D-CA) tries to fend off a stern challenge from Republican businesswoman Carly Fiorina.  Neither Fiorina nor gubernatorial candidate Meg Whitman have been able to get the polls in their favor in a number of weeks.

Finally on Friday, the President will raise money and rally Democrats in favor of Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid in Las Vegas.

Democrats can afford to lose one of those three Senate races - if they lose two - then they will be skating very close to the edge of losing control of the U.S. Senate.

We'll see what kind of reception the President gets in coming days - and then whether it produces results at the ballot box.

Election Day is 13 days away.

 
 

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