IT'S NOT LOOKING ANY BETTER FOR THE GOP.

Not good.

Essentially we have learned thus far that some of Foley's actions were an open secret on the Hill.  We've also learned that Foley actually wanted to retire, but the House Republican Leadership, eager to hang on to power, convinced him to stay and run again. 

Nice going, guys. You knew he was a gay man preying on male pages .. and you urge him to stay in the race?  Holding on to power in Washington is that important to you? 

Now we're finding out that Mark Foley actually tried to visit the dorm that the House Pages sleep in.  The story is that Foley showed up drunk at the dorm some time back and that the Capitol Police stopped him from entering.  It's not known how long ago this was or how many times Foley showed up. 

Are we expected to believe that the Republican leadership didn't know of Foley's attempts to get into the dorm?  Come on!  Are you going to believe that?  And by the way ... ditto for the Democrats, but the difference is that Democrats would eventually use the information to damage Republicans.  Republicans could have used the information to clean their house, protect the pages and themselves .. but they did not do it.

What are we going to find out next?  We know that Foley's computers and e-mails are being examined further...expect an avalanche of bad publicity.

All of this is bad news for the Republicans, whose leadership couldn't have handled this more badly.  We now know that Foley was chatting up pages as far back as the mid-nineties....how long before we find out that it was more than just talk?  Are we supposed to believe that Foley never once in the last several years did anything more than send dirty instant messages and naughty e-mails?  Hopefully, but you never know.

Just when you think it can't get any worse...it does.  Next Tuesday makes it four weeks until Election Day, and with each passing scandal, Nancy Pelosi is gearing up to receive her Speaker's gavel.  If that happens, the Republicans will have done it to themselves.

HOW CLOSE ARE THE DEMOCRATS?

The war in Iraq, out of control spending, the Mark Foley disaster....things are looking pretty good for the Democrats these days.  They've been handed several gifts by their opposition....and seem poised to convert that into a House majority that will put them back in power after 12 years in the political wilderness.  But how close are they to really taking the reigns?  Let's take a look, shall we?

We know that incumbents almost always win political races, particularly in an off-year election.  I think the average is about 95%. That's how the Democrats stayed where they were for 40 years.  It takes an extraordinary circumstance....like Bill Clinton's failed agenda and retroactive tax increase in 1994...to sweep the party in power out of office.  Are the current scandals enough to send the Republicans packing?  Maybe...but it all comes down to just a few races.

The Democrats' magic number to take control is 15.  Assuming Foley's opponent in his race wins....the person taking his place can't get the ballot changed in time, so people are still expected to vote for 'Mark Foley' for the Democrat to lose....that puts the number at 14.  Then comes the 8th district in Arizona, where the Democrat holds a double-digit lead over the Republican.  That puts the number at 13.

After that, you've got 11 or so races with about 10 points separating the Democrat from the Republican candidate.  Some show the Democrat leading, others not.  It's close.  The election will turn on one thing:  turnout.  If disgusted Republicans stay home, expect the Democratic blowout.  If not, the Republicans might hang on.

Either way, expect it to be close.  Whoever takes or retains control on November 7th is probably going to do it by the slimmest of margins.

Gloriosky, Neal. Can you possibly get a louder motorcycle jacket?

DEMOCRATS ATTACKING THE FAIRTAX

There are several reasons to fear the FairTax. 

You might be a K-Street lobbyist in Washington, someone who earns a half-million a year enticing congressmen to tweak the tax code just a bit for a favored client.  Reason enough to oppose any tax reform proposal that would remove the tax components on labor and capital from businesses. 

You also might be an elected official who regularly campaigns on your successes in shifting tax burdens from the people who's votes you want, to the people who's votes you don't need.  What good is a tax code that you can't use to buy votes?

Sure ... there are reasons to oppose the FairTax. But if H.R. 25 is such a bad idea, why can't you convey that to the voters without outright lying?

The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee has decided that it is going to use the FairTax to campaign against Republicans who have co-sponsored H.R.25.  Furthermore, the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee ("DNCC") has decided that it will lie about the FairTax in political advertisements.

Republican Max Burns is a Republican representing areas of Georgia including Savannah, Augusta and Macon.  The DNCC is running ads against him. 

Here's the DNCC ad:

Now those of you who are already familiar with the FairTax know that this ad is deceptive ... and deliberately so. 

Right off the bat it tries to give the impression that the FairTax is Max Burns' idea.  It's not.  The bill was proposed by Congressman John Linder.  Not Max Burns.  Lie No. 1.

The ad then says that the FairTax would raise taxes by 23%.  This is a deception.  Nowhere in the ad does it say that the sales tax would be imbedded in the price of the products you buy, and that it would not be a tax increase, but rather a tax replacement.  The FairTax would replace the embedded taxes that are already there.  Funny how the DNCC doesn't want to mention that.  Lie No. 2.

Then we have the charge that the FairTax would hit working families the hardest.  To back up this claim the DNCC cites the Institute on Taxation and Economic Policy ("ITEP") as a source for the claim. 

First.  About the Institute on Taxation and Economic Policy.  The Argus Group researched the ITEP policy and made some interesting discoveries.  It seems that the ITEP rewrote H.R. 25 just a bit before they studied its affects on taxpayers.  For instance, the ITEP decided to change the 23% FairTax rate to some other rate --- a rate they will not disclose.  As The Argus Groups says " In short, ITEP did not model the Fair Tax at all, but a tax of its own design."  Funny how the DNCC ad doesn't tell us this.  The DNCC attack ad also doesn't tell us that the ITEP is funded by such liberal groups as the Tides Foundation (Teresa Heinz Kerry), the Open Society Institute (George Soros), the Streisand Foundation (Barbra Streisand), and the Ben and Jerry Foundation.

Oh ... and another thing about the DNCC's claim that the FairTax would hurt the working poor.  Nowhere in the ad do they mention that nobody .. not even the poor .. will pay the sales tax on the basic necessities of life.  Interestingly enough, the DNCC also failed to mention that the president's tax reform commission noted that the FairTax was the only tax reform proposal out there that completely lifted the federal tax burden from the nation's poor.  Quite an omission, wouldn't you say?  Let's call these lies no. 3 and 4.

In the past FairTax supporters have been successful in getting newspapers and radio and television stations to pull these ads from the air after they have been proven to be not only false, but intentionally false and misleading.  Such an effort is being made in Max Burns' district.  We'll let you know what happens.

The same ads, by the way, are being used to attack FairTax supporters in other congressional districts around the nation.  One example would be Mike Sodrel, a Republican FairTax cosponsor from southern Indiana.

Once again though ... same old thing ... in order to combat the FairTax, you have to lie about it. 

Jim Parker found the FairTax being promoted in an unusual place...in the men's bathroom at a BP/Amoco station on Shallowford Road of Sandy Plains Road in Marietta, Georgia.

REDNECK SCRAP BOOK

I suspect Deliverance lies behind this fence. More in the Redneck Scrap Book.

READING ASSIGNMENTS

Archeologists discover the fossilized remains of a 10,000 year old liberal. Take a look!

The House Majority Whip, Roy Blunt of Missouri, is distancing himself from the House Republican leadership's handling of the Mark Foley debacle.  Those in power are starting to realize things weren't handled properly....and the public doesn't seem too impressed by that.

A survey over the summer says that more Democrats watch CNN and more Republicans watch the Fox News Channel.  So why do politicians go on those networks?  They say they want to anger people into voting....and it gets ratings for the cable networks.  We'll see how well that plan works on November 7th.

Connecticut Representative Christopher Shays, Republican, says Donald Rumsfeld needs to go.  Shays, a supporter of the war, says he is losing faith in the Department of Defense.  This is right about the time he is also losing his race for re-election back home to an anti-war Democrat.

Former Speaker of the House Newt Gingrich is backing current Speaker of the House Dennis Hastert.  He says he does not agree with his former press secretary Tony Blankley, who is calling on Hastert to step down.  Gingrich calls talk of a Hastert resignation premature.

George Will basically says it's probably all over for the House Republicans this fall....Democrats really only need to win 13 seats to capture the House and hand Nancy Pelosi the Speaker's gavel.  That's right...Speaker Nancy Pelosi.  Now that could teach the Republicans a valuable lesson.

Ann Coulter looks at the difference between the aftermath of Mark Foley's resignation and what would have happened were he a Democrat.  Would the Democrats be responding in the same way?  Would a Democrat have resigned so quickly?  She also takes a look at the Democrats' rule book governing issues like this.

The title of Robert Novak's most recent column just about says it all:  the dysfunctional House GOP.  Did you know that Mark Foley was considering retiring from Congress, but that the Republican leadership talked him into running for re-election?  Oops.

Victor Davis Hanson supports the ability of illegal aliens to earn citizenship and doesn't agree with those who are pushing mass deportations as the answer to illegal immigration.  He says more and more, people are seeing it his way.

Yet another voice has made itself known asking Speaker of the House Dennis Hastert to resign.  Columnist Larry Kudlow is as direct as he could possibly be in saying "step aside, Mr. Speaker."  And Kudlow says it's not just because of the Foley incident.

William F. Buckley breaks down the House Pages scandal and reminds people that as far as we know, there was no actual molestation between Foley and any of the pages.  He also points out that no one has been indicted and Foley isn't really guilty of any crime.

Do you want the libertarian take on Mark Foley?  This from Reason Magazine.

Neal spoke with another former page who had contact with Foley. See video and IM transcripts from MSNBC.

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