Back in September I told you about a conversation I had with a friend about the presidential race.  He pointed out, and I agreed, that the most likeable candidate always seems to win these presidential races.  But then I went on to explain how this is an absurd way to pick a Commander-in-Chief. 

But something quite amazing has happened over the last month.  I would venture to say that it is almost unheard of … but Barack Obama’s favorability ratings have plummeted while Mitt Romney’s have soared.  In fact, Real Clear Politics has Obama’s likeability average at 50.8 with Mitt Romney’s at 49.7.  And Obama’s unfavorable rating is 45.8 and Mitt Romney has a lower unfavorable rating of 44.3.  In other words, when it comes to likeability, it seems as though the candidates are now nearly tied.  I still believe that, overall, the edge goes to Obama, but Mitt Romney sure did climb in the ranks.

So where does that leave us?  If both guys are likeable, then what does it all come down to?  Two things: Credibility and turnout.  Mitt Romney has a lot to prove tonight in this foreign policy debate.  Americans seem to believe that he’s got the edge on Obama when it comes to our economy, but what about foreign policy?  And then there is turnout.  The momentum as far as voter enthusiasm seems to have shifted to the Republicans, albeit slightly.  Mitt Romney must keep this momentum and grow this momentum from now until the election.  He must give people a reason to show up on November 6^th.